Falling behind in Berlin

Recently, in The Signal: Why are millions of factory jobs leaving China? Victor Shih on the country’s extraordinary self-inflicted loss.

Today: Why are younger men increasingly voting for the populist right and younger women, the environmental left? Rosie Campbell on a new gender divide in the Western world.

+ What happened to the German economy? What we’re tracking for this week’s member’s despatch. & New music from Anthony Naples …

Feature

Divergence

Why are younger men increasingly voting for the populist right and younger women, the environmental left? Rosie Campbell on a new gender divide in the Western world.

The SignalGustav Jönsson

Books / from the member’s despatch

‘Unknown territory.’ On April 24, the German government revised its forecast for GDP growth this year from 0.3 percent down to 0.0, in order to account for the expected effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Germany’s export-heavy economy. But the original forecast wasn’t exactly promising, either. And the German economy has been stagnant for years.

The country hasn’t seen significant growth in half a decade, since recovery from the pandemic. In 2024, Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.2 percent; in 2023, it shrank by 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, key sectors like the car industry have fallen behind their global competitors. Automakers in Germany produced 5.65 million cars in 2017 but only 4.1 million in 2023. Volkswagen, for instance, has slashed wages and has said it will lay off 35,000 workers by the end of the decade.

Germany used to be Europe’s economic powerhouse.

What happened?

Developments / what we’re tracking

Beloved. The former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte won the race for mayor in Davao, the country’s third-largest city, on Tuesday. Duterte got almost two-thirds of the votes; no one else got even 10 percent. Slight complication: He’s in jail in Europe. Duterte is at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, awaiting trial on charges of crimes against humanity. Prosecutors say he’s responsible for killing more than 12,000 people allegedly involved in the drug trade.

• The Duterte family remains beloved throughout the Philippines. When Duterte turned 80 in March, the ICC had to use a van to bring all the flowers sent to him; he received three bags of mail. Some Filipinos still say he’s the best president their country ever had.
• His son Sebastian won as vice mayor of Davao and will serve in his father’s place for the time being, the family says. At least seven Dutertes won races in national elections on May 5. Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter Sara is vice president of the country, but she was impeached in February.
• The Dutertes are battling for political control of the Philippines against another family dynasty, the Marcoses. President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos is the son of the former president of the same name. Marcos and Sara Duterte campaigned together for president and vice president, winning office in 2022, but have fallen out since.

The enduring popularity of the Duterte and Marcos families is partly on account of the enduring appeal of the populist style of politics and its narratives about good citizens victimized by corrupt elites. Rodrigo Duterte, for instance, has long said that international drug rings are working with corrupt Philippine politicians and police officials to destroy the country. The electoral wins for candidates backed by the Dutertes and Marcoses raise a question about whether any political force can break their grip on power. Some results from May 5 show that a slate of candidates opposing both families did better than expected—though today, it still looks like someone named either Duterte or Marcos will be the next president in 2028. … For context: Alvin Canba, “Family legend.”

Coming soon: Ioakim Boutakidis on why boys are falling so far behind girls at every level of school …

Music

‘Bounce’