Notes

Escalation and calculation in Gaza. Israel’s security cabinet voted early Friday to expand military operations and take control of Gaza City. The plan—with its first phase deadline set for October 7, the two-year anniversary of Hamas’s deadly 2023 attack on Israeli civilians—would bring Israeli forces into one of the last areas not under full military occupation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office framed the decision as part of five principles for ending the war, including disarming Hamas and establishing Israeli security control over Gaza.

The decision follows building domestic and international pressure on Israel for a ceasefire—and faces acute opposition from within Israel’s own military leadership, with Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly opposing the full takeover over concerns about endangering the estimated 20 hostages still alive and the strain on exhausted reservists. There’s also been swift and broad international condemnation: Germany announced it would suspend arms exports to Israel, while the UN warned of “catastrophic consequences.” Back in Israel, families of hostages have condemned the expansion as a “death sentence” for their loved ones. The move comes as Gaza faces what UN officials call an unfolding famine, with reports of Palestinians killed while seeking aid since May.

What’s Netanyahu thinking?