Jul. 13, 2025 |
26 feet, 45 minutes. Catastrophic flash flooding devastated central Texas on July 4, killing at least 121 people and leaving over 160 missing. The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in just three-quarters of an hour during overnight torrential rains, with the hardest-hit area being Kerr County where Camp Mystic, a Christian girls’ summer camp, lost 27 campers and counselors. Weather models had predicted the possibility of 10-20 inches of rain, but the National Weather Service’s official forecast called for only 1-3 inches with isolated amounts of 5-7 inches.
Emergency alerts were delayed; a local firefighter requested a CodeRED alert at 4:22 a.m., but it took nearly six hours for some residents to receive warnings. Questions have emerged about whether recent staffing cuts at the National Weather Service affected the response, though officials state both relevant offices were fully staffed during the event. Camp Mystic counselors reportedly lacked walkie-talkies and emergency evacuation training, while Kerr County had been denied federal funding for warning sirens after previous applications in 2016 and 2017.
So how did a predictable weather event with advance warning systems result in such devastating loss of life?