Notes

Welcome to the machine. It was a shocking operation. Ukrainian officials say they spent almost a year planning it. They smuggled drones deep within Russia, many just a few miles from the country’s most important military airfields. And then, on Sunday, they all took off together, destroying more than 40 Russian planes capable of carrying nuclear and ballistic missiles.

With video of the operation available everywhere on social media in the days since, it’s a major, spectacular success for Kyiv—and a profound embarrassment for the Kremlin.

But how much difference did it make? Just two days later, Russia launched a ballistic missile and 103 drones at targets throughout Ukraine. Overnight on Thursday, Russian bombs demolished the state administration building in the major Ukrainian port city of Kherson.

Russia still has another 80 strategic bombers like the ones destroyed on Sunday. This year, Russian armed forces have detonated more than 27,000 bombs and more than 20,000 drones in Ukraine—much higher numbers than in the first half of last year. And Ukraine’s stunning drone operation didn’t alter positions on the war’s front line by an inch.

So what’s the actual state of the war?

—Michael Bluhm