Notes

Warning signs. Even after Western countries cut off nearly all trade with Russia—and hit it with unprecedented sanctions—Moscow surprisingly recorded strong GDP growth, above 4 percent in 2023 and 2024. The U.S., having the strongest economy in the developed world, didn’t manage growth of even 3 percent either year, while the EU was under 1 percent.

The Kremlin still found plenty of eager buyers for its oil and natural-gas exports, mostly in China and India, and its domestic war machine provided plenty of jobs and demand for goods and services.

But now, things seem to be changing. GDP growth for the first quarter of this year was only 1.4 percent. In June, President Vladimir Putin hosted the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum—a massive, spectacular show meant to attract new investment and display Russian strength. But no Western companies attended the event, and even Moscow’s allies mostly sent junior officials and businesspeople. At the forum, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the country was on the brink of a recession.

Is it?

—Michael Bluhm