Jul. 07, 2025 |

A fistful of minerals. When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on nearly every country in the world on April 2, it seemed like the day might transform the global economy. But one week later, after stock and bond markets plummeted worldwide, Trump paused the tariffs for 90 days.

Except on China.

What began as a round of universal tariffs turned into an exceptional new trade war with Beijing. Each side raised rates multiple times, with the U.S. eventually putting a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing import duties of 125 percent on American goods.

But a month later, in Geneva, each side agreed to reduce tariff levels by more than 100 percentage points. Soon after, though, the U.S. enacted a new array of tough trade restrictions on China, mostly on high-tech items. Yet by June, Washington had canceled those policies. At the end of the month, Trump declared the trade war was over and the two countries had made a deal.

Neither side has released details of the agreement, but it looks like China didn’t have to make any concessions or change anything in the way it had traded with the U.S. before the tariff fight.

Why not?

Michael Bluhm

Rishi