‘Nowhere to run’

Recently: Why the spread of major crime within the U.S. Special Forces? Seth Harp on a dark legacy of America’s war on terror.

Today: Putin’s last critic resigns from the Kremlin. Russian jets test Estonian airspace—as Trump warns of “big trouble.” Haiti’s gangs expand their control into rural areas outside Port-au-Prince. & China threatens Taiwan while promising global peace.

In this week’s member’s despatch—up now:

The logic behind the U.S. administration shutting down a TV comedian in 48 hours—no laws broken, no violations cited. Why the United Arab Emirates got access to America’s most advanced AI chips two weeks after investing $2 billion with the Trump organization. & What happens when the president of the United States can order military strikes first and ask Congress later—if ever.

Also: Emile Dirks on whether the Chinese Communist Party really controls TikTok. & Sergey Radchenko on how much control  China really has over Russia.

& The weather report: 20.1050° N, 121.9473° E …

+ Cultural intelligence: What happens when environmental solutions create environmental problems? Thea Riofrancos, Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism. A Welsh-language music scene? &c.

The last honest broker in Moscow

The Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff, Dmitry Kozak—one of the few Putin confidants who opposed the Ukraine invasion—quietly resigned this week. Kozak is a former military-intelligence officer, who’d been Putin’s deputy prime minister for nearly 12 years, and was part of the tight circle of officials Putin brought with him from St. Petersburg when he first became president in 2000—a group that has formed the core of his administration for more than two decades.

According to Kremlin insiders, Kozak was “really close” to Putin and “allowed to do things others cannot”—including frankly opposing the invasion plan, which “ruffled many feathers in the Kremlin,” even though many elites privately shared his horror at the war.

Kozak’s departure follows Putin’s recent escalations—ramping up attacks after his Alaska summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, hitting Western targets, and orchestrating the drone incursion into Poland that ended up marking the first time NATO forces would shoot down Russian military assets since the war began. The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced this month that peace negotiations were “paused.”

Meanwhile, Sergei Kiriyenko, an outwardly unambivalent invasion supporter, has been absorbing Kozak’s portfolios—overseeing the integration of captured Ukrainian territories into Russia, as well as youth-indoctrination programs.

A key question is whether Putin’s now complete isolation from any dissenting counsel makes escalation more likely. As the outgoing MI6 chief Richard Moore rendered his assessment on Friday of the situation inside the Kremlin, Putin “seeks to impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal” and is “stringing us along” on peace prospects.

Meanwhile

• Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on Friday morning in what Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called an “unprecedentedly brazen” incursion that prompted his country to invoke NATO’s Article 4, obliging the alliance to meet and discuss potential collective responses: “I don’t love it. I don’t like when that happens. Could be big trouble.”
• The Kokorat San Ras gang attacked the town of Bassin Bleu in northwest Haiti on Thursday, killing at least one high-school teacher, kidnapping residents, and burning down the police station and town hall in the first major assault on the previously peaceful community—in the first expansion of gang control beyond Port-au-Prince into rural areas once considered safe havens: “What can we do because now we have nowhere to run.”
• China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun threatened on Thursday that the “restoration” of Taiwan to China “is an integral part of the post-war international order” and vowed Beijing would “never allow any separatist attempts for Taiwan independence to succeed.” Then again, Dong also said, “The Chinese military stands ready to work with all parties to serve as a force for global peace, stability and progress”—so everything’s likely fine.

For members

Laughing matters

Brendan Carr, the head of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (the FCC)—the agency that regulates broadcast media, appeared on a podcast Wednesday, calling the comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s remarks about the Trump administration’s response to the political activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination “the sickest conduct possible.”

Carr then delivered what sounded like a protection-racket ultimatum: “We can do this the easy way or the hard way. These companies can find ways to change conduct and take action, frankly, on Kimmel, or there’s going to be additional work for the FCC ahead.” With that, Disney pulled Kimmel’s show, which has been on the air for more than two decades, within hours.

How could that happen when no one broke any laws?

The price of admission

Back in May, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who controls the United Arab Emirates’ $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund, announced a US$2 billion investment in World Liberty Financial—the cryptocurrency company founded by the Trump and Witkoff families—during a ceremony in Dubai.

Two weeks later, Steve Witkoff, serving simultaneously as Trump’s Middle East envoy and family business partner, sat in White House meetings advocating for U.A.E. access to hundreds of thousands of advanced AI chips that had been restricted under American export controls. The White House approved the technology transfer, giving the Emirates access to some of America’s most advanced artificial intelligence hardware.

It’s the subject of a stunning New York Times investigation published this week.

How did Trump family-business interests become national-security policy?

Shoot first

On September 2, American military commanders received orders to strike what officials described as a Venezuelan “drug boat" operating in international waters. The vessel, carrying 11 people, was heading back toward the Venezuelan coast when U.S. forces opened fire, killing everyone aboard. No congressional authorization preceded the attack.

For days afterward, the administration maintained that the strike was justified self-defense against an imminent threat. Then, during closed congressional briefings, officials quietly acknowledged a crucial detail they’d omitted from public statements: The boat was sailing away from American territory rather than toward it when forces opened fire.

Both Democratic and Republican senators expressed dissatisfaction with the legal justification for attacking a retreating vessel. On Monday, Trump announced a second strike had killed three more people on another alleged Venezuelan drug boat, declaring: “These extremely violent drug trafficking cartels POSE A THREAT to US National Security, Foreign Policy and vital US Interests.”

Alright then.

But why shoot a boat that’s moving away from you?

+ John Jamesen Gould on what’s ahead at The Signal … & Hywel Mills, with an update on our migration to Ghost.

New music

‘Taro #1 + #2’

Gruff Rhys, the longtime Super Furry Animals frontman has a new solo record out, which he sings all in Welsh. Strange? Not really. When Rhys and his bandmates put out Mwng in 2000, it was a bold move to release a pop album in Welsh; now it’s another welcome addition to the scene.

A Welsh-language music scene?