Two attacks, three stories

Recently: Why does the American military budget keep getting bigger? William D. Hartung’s and Ben Freeman’s new book, The Trillion Dollar War Machine.

Today: Pakistan’s government says India is behind the Islamabad bombing. India calls that baseless. A militant group claimed the attack. What evidence exists for any of these claims? The accusations are coming fast between two capitals hit within 24 hours.

+ For members: What does Qatar want from America? Nick Cleveland-Stout on Doha’s massive influence operation in Washington.

& New music from Ourã ...

Pakistan under siege

A suicide bomber killed 12 people outside Islamabad’s district court on Tuesday afternoon. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction of the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility in a statement. And yet Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has blamed “Indian terrorist proxies” backed by Afghanistan. India’s foreign ministry called that “baseless.” The main Pakistani Taliban group denied involvement. Less than 24 hours earlier, a car exploded near Delhi’s Red Fort, killing at least eight. No one has claimed that attack. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said CCTV footage shows the Islamabad bomber trying to enter the courthouse, then detonating near a police vehicle when security stopped him. Pakistan’s government says India is behind the attack. What evidence exists for any of these claims?

Pakistan and Afghanistan held talks in Istanbul last week that collapsed without agreement. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared the country in “a state of war” on Tuesday and said the attack was “a message from Kabul.” Afghanistan expressed condolences but didn’t address the accusation. Pakistan has blamed Afghanistan for sheltering militants since violence surged after the Taliban took Kabul in 2021. The Islamabad bombing marked the deadliest attack in Pakistan’s capital since 2008. India rejected what it called Pakistan’s “desperate diversionary ploys,” citing “military-inspired constitutional subversion” inside Pakistan. So: A group claims the Islamabad attack. The government blames India and Afghanistan instead. Delhi’s blast remains unexplained. Officials are pointing fingers while investigators are still gathering evidence.

Meanwhile

• The carrier arrives near Venezuela. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group entered Latin American waters on Tuesday, joining eight warships, a nuclear submarine, and F-35 aircraft already deployed in the Caribbean. The Ford carries more than 4,000 sailors and dozens of tactical aircraft. U.S. officials say the deployment targets drug-trafficking operations, but Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro calls it preparation for intervention. The U.S. military has conducted at least 19 strikes on suspected drug vessels since September, killing at least 76 people.
• Cement blocks along Gaza’s yellow line. The next phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan has stalled, six European officials told Reuters on Monday. Reconstruction appears likely only in the Israeli-controlled zone—53 percent of Gaza, including most farmland. Israel refuses to allow involvement by the Palestinian Authority. Hamas refuses to disarm. Without major U.S. pressure, European officials said, the temporary yellow line dividing Gaza risks becoming permanent. Israeli forces have placed yellow cement blocks along the boundary and built infrastructure on their side.
• Two resignations, one edit. The British Broadcasting Corporation’s director-general, Tim Davie, and news chief, Deborah Turness, resigned on Sunday after criticism that a BBC documentary misleadingly edited Trump’s January 6, 2021, speech. The Panorama episode spliced together sections of Trump’s remarks to make it appear he called for violence, cutting a section where he urged supporters to demonstrate peacefully. Trump called them “very dishonest people” who tried to influence an election. British Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy thanked Davie for his service, while emphasizing the need for “trusted news.”
• From terrorist list to White House guest. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met Trump at the White House on Monday and committed to joining the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS as its 90th member. The U.S. authorized Syria to reopen its embassy in Washington and extended sanctions relief for another 180 days. Al-Sharaa—formerly an al-Qaeda commander with a US$10 million bounty on him—became the first Syrian president to visit the White House in 25 years. Trump praised Al-Sharaa as “a very strong leader” and “a tough guy.” The State Department removed him from its terrorist list on Friday.
• Buffett signs off. Warren Buffett announced on Monday that he’ll stop writing Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter and speaking at shareholder meetings when Greg Abel becomes the firm’s CEO at year’s end. “As the British would say, I’m ‘going quiet,’” Buffett wrote. He donated US$1.35 billion to family foundations and said he plans to accelerate charitable giving. Buffett, now 94, praised Abel as “a great manager, a tireless worker and an honest communicator.” Abel joined Berkshire in 2000 when the company acquired his energy business. Buffett will remain chairman.

Feature

‘A huge, flying conflict of interest’

What does Qatar want from America? Nick Cleveland-Stout on Doha’s massive influence operation in Washington.

On September 9, the Israel Defense Forces struck Doha, the capital of Qatar, killing five members of Hamas and one Qatari security officer. Israeli officials initially claimed the White House had signed off on the operation. The United States said it had been notified shortly before—not by Israel but by General Dan Caine, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. While President Donald Trump suggested the strike might ultimately “serve as an opportunity for peace,” he called it “unfortunate” and criticized it publicly: “Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals." The emir of Qatar was less ambivalent, calling it “an act of state terrorism.”

Although this wasn’t Israel’s first or last recent strike inside neighboring states, the Qatar hit was unprecedented. Unlike Iran, Qatar is a close partner of the U.S., hosting the largest American military base in the region.

Also unlike Iran, it has considerable sway in American politics. For years, the Qataris have been building out a powerful lobbying network in Washington. In May, they gave Trump a huge, ornate jumbo jet—a “palace in the sky,” per media commentary—supposedly worth US$400 million. They’re going into business with members of Trump’s family. And they’re cultivating relationships with right-wing influencers: The Qatari lobbying firm Lumen8 Advisors set up the interview the American political-media personality Tucker Carlson did with the prime minister of Qatar earlier this year.

What’s Qatar after here?

Nick Cleveland-Stout is a research associate in the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a co-author of the recent report “Soft Power, Hard Influence: How Qatar Became a Giant in Washington.” Cleveland-Stout says Qatar’s leadership has a strategy to develop its soft power internationally—and that strategy has two main parts: At home, they’re positioning Doha as a global capital of conflict mediation. And in the U.S., they’re buying as much influence as they possibly can. Which is a lot. No fewer than three of their former consultants and lobbyists have entered senior ranks in the Trump administration, one being the current head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

What may be most striking, to Cleveland-Stout, is how reactive the Qataris’ U.S.-influence strategy is. They’re spending big in Washington mainly to ward off challenges from their regional rivals—above all, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. All these countries have more entrenched lobbies in the U.S. capital; all of them pose a security threat to Qatar—which needs as much sway as it can get with the Americans on account of being so reliant on U.S. security guarantees. But the Israeli strike in Doha—that’s something new for the Qataris: an unprecedented test of how much all their spending can actually protect them when it matters …

New music

‘Casual’

Ourã, a four-piece from Rio de Janeiro, leads Brazil’s low-fidelity rock scene. Their new album is called Slacker—which tells you what you need to know about the sound. Think melodic grunge, lumbering guitars, the Seattle end of the 1990s transplanted south.