The difference three days made

Recently: How did American immigration enforcement get so radical, so fast? Austin Kocher on Trump’s refitting of a system his predecessors built.

Today: Two U.S. senators voted to limit the president’s war powers, citing the Constitution. A week later, they went the other way—apparently satisfied by a promise to follow it “circumstances permitting.”

+ For members: Why does American civil society look so fragile? Dylan Riley on why so many nonprofits and universities have been folding under pressure from the U.S. administration.

& New music from Sault ...

72 hours later

On Wednesday evening, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., to cast a tie-breaking vote, killing a resolution that would have required congressional authorization before any further U.S. military action in Venezuela. The vote was 51-50. A week earlier, five Republican senators had broken with President Donald Trump to advance the resolution—a rare rebuke, just days after his surprise operation to capture the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Trump responded by calling them “real losers” who “should never be elected to office again.” By Wednesday, two of them—Josh Hawley of Missouri and Todd Young of Indiana—had reversed.

The reversal may have been predictable. Why they voted yes to begin with is harder to explain.

Hawley’s explanation last week was unusually personal. “I’ve lived through Iraq,” he told reporters. “All of us have who are of a certain age. And I was so disillusioned by what happened there, I want to make sure that that never happens again.” Along with the formative experience, he invoked the Constitution. A week later, he cited a letter from Secretary of State Marco Rubio promising to seek congressional approval before “major military operations”—“circumstances permitting”—as having addressed his concerns. Young’s stated perspective: “I think we played our hand well.” But the letter contained no new legal commitments; the U.S. Constitution already requires congressional authorization for war. The assurance that swayed them restated existing law.

Meanwhile

• Nothing to see here. The United Nations Security Council held an emergency session on Wednesday as Iran’s crackdown on protesters entered its third week. U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz declared that President Trump “has made it clear all options are on the table.” The death toll has surpassed 3,000, according to U.S.-based activists—though a week-long internet blackout makes verification impossible. Trump claimed he received assurances the killings had stopped; Iran denied any plans for executions. … See “‘Total control’.”
• European troops land in Nuuk. Military personnel from France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and the U.K. began arriving in Greenland on Thursday after talks between Danish and U.S. officials ended in “fundamental disagreement.” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said Trump’s “wish of conquering Greenland” remained unchanged. Trump: “If we don’t go in, Russia is going to go in and China is going to go in.” Denmark announced plans for a permanent military rotation with NATO allies.
• The blackout election. Ugandans voted on Thursday in a tense presidential election held under an internet blackout and heavy military presence. President Yoweri Museveni, 81, who’s ruled since 1986, faces opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi—the pop star known as Bobi Wine—in a rematch of the disputed 2021 contest. Biometric verification machines failed nationwide, forcing manual voting. Preliminary results showed Museveni leading with 62 percent; Wine’s party signaled a possible legal challenge.
• Gaza’s new managers. The U.S. administration announced on Wednesday that its Gaza plan is entering Phase 2—“demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.” The 15-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, headed by the former Palestinian Authority official Ali Shaath, held its first meeting in Cairo on Thursday. Hamas called it “a step in the right direction”; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed it as “a declarative move.” No countries have committed troops to the proposed stabilization force.
• Seventy-five countries, indefinitely. The U.S. State Department announced on Wednesday that it’ll halt immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries—including Brazil, Russia, Afghanistan, Somalia, Egypt, and Colombia—starting on January 21. The department cited “public charge” concerns, claiming immigrants from these countries rely on public assistance “at unacceptable rates.” The pause does not affect tourist or student visas and will remain in effect indefinitely while the department reviews screening procedures.

For members

‘A terrain of struggle’

Why does American civil society look so fragile? Dylan Riley on why so many nonprofits and universities have been folding under pressure from the U.S. administration.

Back in September, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memo encouraging the Treasury, the Department of Justice, and the Internal Revenue Service to go after American groups that fund “domestic terrorism.” As a potential target, he named George Soros, the billionaire founder of the Open Society Foundations, which repudiated the charge as the latest in a series of “politically motivated” executive-branch attacks on civil society.

The Open Society Foundations has some US$25 billion in assets. It can afford good lawyers. But smaller nonprofits might not. “There’s enormous fear right now,” the National Council of Nonprofits senior vice-president Sarah Saadian told the Financial Times. “We’re definitely hearing from nonprofits who are really concerned, who are making changes to what they’re saying publicly.”

Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to revoke nonprofits’, including universities’, tax exemptions. The White House has already offered select universities preferential funding in return for signing a “compact” requiring them to fulfil obligations including eliminating “institutional units” that “belittle” or “punish” “conservative ideas.”

And last spring, Trump signed a series of executive orders targeting law firms he said threatened U.S. interests. Soon enough, these firms complied. March 14, for instance, saw an executive order terminating the federal contracts of the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, and revoking their lawyers’ security clearances. Days later, he rescinded the order after the firm promised to abandon its diversity policies and provide $40 million worth of free legal work in support of White House initiatives.

American civil society is enormous—nonprofits alone employ more people than manufacturing. It includes foundations with global reach, universities with billion-dollar endowments, and law firms with centuries of prestige. And yet its response so far has been scattered and hesitant.

What’s happening?

Dylan Riley is a professor of sociology at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of The Civic Foundations of Fascism in Europe. The answer, Riley says, lies in a structural asymmetry. Many civil-society groups—especially those aligned with the Democrats—have large budgets but small, passive memberships. They’re surprisingly weak politically. And Trump, in a sense, isn’t wrong that many supposedly non-political nonprofits have close ties with the Democratic Party. But the administration isn’t out to crush American civil society in its entirety. Vice President J.D. Vance took to right-wing organizer Charlie Kirk’s podcast following his assassination, urging conservatives to “get involved.” And the Republican Party has in some ways a closer connection to civil society than the Democrats, particularly through church-based and local organizations. So this isn’t just civil society versus the executive; it’s at least as much a fight within civil society, where the president’s supporters are pressing their advantage …

New music

‘Fulfill Your Spirit’

The slightly mysterious London combo, Sault, is known for mastering all sorts of music: soul, R&B, funk, reggae—it goes on. From their new album, Chapter 1, a beam of Isaac Hayes–inspired, string-drenched, sunshine.