A whole civilization
Developments
- The Iran war: What on Earth is going on?
- When things get worse after a ceasefire announcement. … The Atlantic alliance and the Iran war. … + The crew of Artemis II is back; Chang’e 7 is next.
Features
- Why would a leading Taiwanese political figure be visiting Beijing? Hsin-Hsin Pan on the draw of power in China and the resilience of democracy in Taiwan.
- & Why is Pakistan in “open war” with the Taliban? Anatol Lieven on how Afghanistan became a battleground again.
Books
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Music
- New tracks from Fennesz, the Delvon Lamarr Organ Trio, Art School Girlfriend, Xylitol, & Ladytron.
+ Weather report
- As Tropical Storm Sinlaku heads toward Guam …
Developments
‘Good luck’
While U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance sat across from Iranian officials in Islamabad for 21 hours—the first face-to-face encounter between American and Iranian leaders since 1979—President Donald Trump was at a cage fight in Miami, watching a highlights reel. By the time Vance emerged on Sunday morning to say the Iranians hadn’t accepted American terms, Trump had already told reporters it didn’t matter. “We win, regardless,” he said. “We’ve defeated them militarily.” Iran’s foreign ministry replied that American “overreach and unreasonable demands” had blocked progress—then added, almost gently, that no one should have expected a deal in a single session after a 40-day war.
Four days earlier, Trump had threatened to end “a whole civilization.” Twelve hours after that, he’d accepted a ceasefire. The demands on both sides—nuclear enrichment, Hormuz, sanctions, Lebanon—haven’t moved since late February, before 38 days of bombing and 13,000 targets. Before any of this started, according to extensive reporting from The New York Times, the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency called the whole premise for war “farcical.” The president’s top military adviser warned that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz—and that the United States would struggle to reopen it. The vice president told the president it was a bad idea, then said he’d support him. Trump approved the operation from Air Force One with 22 minutes to spare, ordering: “No aborts. Good luck.”
The ceasefire expires on April 21.
What is happening?
- What the war’s changed. The United States struck 13,000 targets, killed Iran’s supreme leader, and has apparently wounded his son-successor gravely. Iran’s navy is largely destroyed. Its air defenses are significantly degraded. And the negotiating positions are identical to February—Vance defined success in Islamabad as an “affirmative commitment” that Iran will never build a nuclear weapon, a commitment Iran has already made, in writing, twice. The war did produce one new fact: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was simply not an issue before the first bomb fell—and which both sides now describe as the central obstacle to peace. Strangely, the issue hardest to resolve is one the war created.
- What we can’t verify. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, took power at a ceremony where he appeared as a photograph, apparently mounted on cardboard. His first public statement arrived on Thursday as text, read by a news anchor over a still image—no video, no voice. On Saturday, the U.S. Navy says two destroyers entered the Strait of Hormuz and shot down an Iranian drone; Iran says the ships never entered. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the ceasefire doesn’t cover Lebanon; Iran, Pakistan, and the text of the ceasefire agreement itself say it does. Israel struck more than 100 targets in Lebanon on the ceasefire’s first day, killing more than 250 people. The United States hasn’t entirely clarified what its own ceasefire covers.
- What’s moving in the dark. U.S. intelligence agencies believe China may have shipped shoulder-fired missiles to Iran—finished military hardware, sent to a country at war with the United States. Russia has provided satellite targeting data to help Iran’s Revolutionary Guards find American positions. Beijing denies involvement; its companies supply the components for Iran’s drones and missiles regardless. A war that started as a U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran now has Chinese weapons, Russian intelligence, and Pakistani mediation shaping its course—and none of those guys were at the table in Islamabad.
Six weeks and 13,000 targets after an operation called Epic Fury, both governments say they won, with neither of their negotiating positions having moved. Iran has laid mines in the strait—and now, apparently, can’t find most of them. The supreme leader is a photograph. The president’s communications team posts video-game cheat codes alongside strike footage, while AI-generated war videos—more vivid and shareable than any authentic clip—flood every platform in volumes no fact-checker can keep up with, and millions of people dismiss genuine footage as fake. There is more information about this war than about any conflict before it, and less clarity about what is actually happening—what changed, what the goals are now, what comes next, whether the ceasefire holds or the bombing resumes—than at any point since the first strikes on February 28.
Meanwhile
- ‘Everywhere, including Lebanon.’ Displaced families across southern Lebanon packed their cars and drove home after Pakistan’s prime minister announced the scope of the current ceasefire. Hours later, Netanyahu denied it, and Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness—50 fighter jets, more than 100 strikes, more than 250 dead. Iran reimposed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. … See “Eternal darkness.”
- Alliance politics. Trump met NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the White House on Wednesday and, according to European Union officials, delivered what one participant called a “tirade of insults” over the alliance’s refusal to join the Iran war. Trump branded NATO a “paper tiger,” demanded help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and revived his claim to Greenland. Rutte called the talks “very frank”—including, it seems, about NATO being a defensive alliance.
- 252,756 miles. NASA’s Artemis II capsule splashed down on Friday after the first lunar mission to carry astronauts since 1972—four astronauts, a seven-hour flyby, 4,067 miles above the surface. No one’s landed yet. Artemis IV, the first that’ll attempt to, is scheduled for 2028—though no Artemis mission has yet launched on time. China’s Chang’e 7 launches in August, and Beijing is targeting a crewed landing by 2030. Both programs have their eyes on the same water ice. … See “A race to the south pole.”
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Features
Ms. Cheng goes to Beijing
Why would a leading Taiwanese political figure be visiting Beijing? Hsin-Hsin Pan on the draw of power in China and the resilience of democracy in Taiwan.
