A treaty in Versailles

Recently: What do drones do to a war? Robert Hamilton on the high-tech transformation of warfare—and the inevitability of a high-pressure deadlock.

Today: The cost of Iran’s recovery, asked of the Gulf states it attacked. … A U.S. review that could pull American troops out of Europe. … &c.

For members: How’s the green transition going? Thea Riofrancos on the politics the technology can’t solve.

+ New music from Eddy Current Suppression Ring …

Peace by deposit

At the Palace of Versailles, 20 kilometers southwest of Paris, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a “memorandum of understanding” on Wednesday, ending his country’s 100-day war with Iran; Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed his copy in Tehran. The 14 points include opening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, and pausing any fighting for 60 days. On Iran’s nuclear program—enrichment, stockpiles, inspections—the MoU promises only further talks. Its centerpiece, though, is a US$300 billion fund to rebuild Iran, money Tehran can draw only if it meets the terms set for its weapons program.

What’s the fund for, and who’s paying?

Washington has answered the first question while avoiding the second. Trump says the United States will pay nothing, and denies pressuring others; his vice-president, J.D. Vance, however, is pointing to the Gulf states. But they spent the war absorbing Iranian strikes on their ports and oil facilities, and tend to see the fund less as reconstruction than as seed money for a standing enemy. Emirati and Saudi officials are warning that cash intended to steady Iran’s economy is just as likely to rearm its militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Which appears to be one of the memorandum’s bigger gambles: that the money buys restraint from Tehran rather than paying for new aggression. Asked about the fund this week, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said he had no details on it—or the thinking behind it.

Meanwhile

• Long-range sanctions. Before dawn on Thursday, Ukraine struck Moscow’s main oil refinery, nine miles from the Kremlin and source of 40 percent of the city’s fuel, in a raid across a dozen Russian regions. Moscow’s mayor said air defenses downed 137 drones; several got through. Kyiv called it the reply to the barrage that burned Kyiv’s Lavra cathedral. By some estimates, such strikes have idled nearly a third of Russia’s refining capacity, which hit a 21-year low last week.
• Pass or fail. In Brussels on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six-month Pentagon review of American forces in Europe—one he’s told allies “some countries will fail.” He called their refusal to let U.S. forces strike Iran from European bases “shameful,” and took issue with European leaders on issues of migration and gender. NATO’s top military commander—by tradition an American—is already drafting plans to defend Europe without the aircraft carrier, jets, and refueling planes Washington said this month it may no longer send in a crisis.
• A rescue in orbit. Israeli settlers torched two mosques in the occupied West Bank. … Albania saw a 19th day of protests demanding Prime Minister Edi Rama resign. … Brazil’s supreme court convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro for lobbying Washington to sanction the judges trying his father. … The Bank of England held rates at 3.75 percent as oil-price fears from the war eased. … & NASA is sending a robot to lift its Swift telescope in an attempt to keep it from falling out of orbit.

Feature

Incumbents

How’s the green transition going? Thea Riofrancos on the politics the technology can’t solve.

“We’ve entered the age of clean energy,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said this February. Those who lead this transition will lead the global economy of the future.”

China is mass-producing solar panels and pouring money into new battery technology. In the United States, emissions have fallen by some 5 percent since 1990—and by 17 percent since their 2007 peak—while European Union emissions are down about 40 percent since 1990.

Yet there’s political resistance. As Adam Simon says here in The Signal, the transition needs enormous amounts of copper—but many mining companies won’t open new copper mines, because local opposition makes them too risky.

And as Donald Trump took office for a second time, he promised supporters he’d end the “Green New Scam.” His proposed 2027 budget would cut US$15 billion from clean-energy programs and slash the Environmental Protection Agency’s budget in half. “President Trump is committed to eliminating funding for the globalist climate agenda while unleashing American energy production,” the White House said.

How’s this playing out?

Thea Riofrancos is an associate professor of political science at Providence College and the author of Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism. Phasing out fossil fuels isn’t a precondition of the energy transition, she says—it’s half of what the transition is. And the harder half: The fossil-fuel industry is entrenched in the financial system and in politics alike.

The war with Iran has shown how exposed oil-and-gas reliance leaves countries that can’t afford to buy at wartime prices. Shocks like it also make the fossil-fuel industry richer—and a richer industry lobbies harder, as it did after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

That’s the entrenchment. The other side is the new technology—and it’s arriving unexpectedly fast. For the first time, clean-power growth in China appears to have outpaced demand growth enough to flatten the country’s emissions even as its energy supply keeps climbing.

These green technologies—solar panels and batteries above all—can cut emissions sharply. But they land hard on local communities, who may not want a new solar park or lithium mine next door. So the transition turns on politics as much as on engineering …

New music

‘Self-Sabotage’

Stopping by Melbourne to check in on its garage-rock underground with the long-standing Eddy Current Suppression Ring. It’s been six years since their last record—and now just a few weeks since this new one: In Light of Recent Events.