The long way home

Recently: Why have the world’s shipping lanes become war zones? Arnaud Orain on the return of the armed merchant fleet.

Today: An end to exile comes for Venezuela’s opposition leader. … One affliction follows another in eastern Congo. … &c.

For members: What do Middle Eastern states want with European football clubs? Sarath K. Ganji on autocratic governments’ ambitious move into the global game.

+ New music from Kevin Morby …

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In January, U.S. forces flew into Caracas in the dark and seized the Venezuelan dictator, Nicolás Maduro, removing him to a jail cell in New York. Leading up to this extraordinary surprise development, Maduro had been clinging to a presidency he’d lost at the polls 18 months earlier. In the July 2024 election, the opposition’s official candidate, Edmundo González, had beaten him—but Maduro’s electoral council declared him the winner anyway. María Corina Machado, the opposition’s driving force, had run González in her place after the government barred her, then slipped into hiding when the regime cracked down after the vote—and before resurfacing last December in Oslo, where her daughter accepted the Nobel Peace Prize on her behalf. For years, Machado had argued that once Maduro was gone, the army and the bureaucracy would get behind the vote. Now he was gone—but the army went in with his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. The Americans decided to work with her, and within weeks, they’d cut an oil deal with her government and begun lifting sanctions.

On Tuesday, back in Norway, this time on stage at the Oslo Freedom Forum—a partner organization to The Signal—Machado said she’ll be returning to Venezuela soon, the mission she “began in this city” being nearly done. Rodríguez has already said that if Machado comes home, she’ll “have to answer” to the country—for, among other things, having “called for the invasion of Venezuela.”

Now what?

Machado’s support certainly hasn’t waned: Polls still put it above 60 percent. And yet the army and the oil men have lined up with Rodríguez—as, in effect, has Washington. But Machado is going home. And the moment she does, it will have to complicate things for the Americans. It’s one thing to oppose her formally while she’s in Oslo, another to stand by if Rodríguez and the regime in Caracas use force against her—or her supporters—once she’s back in Venezuela.

Meanwhile

• Iran goes quiet. Iran stopped talking to ceasefire mediators on Tuesday, two Iranian news agencies close to the Revolutionary Guard reported, after Israel threatened to bomb Beirut in its fight against Hezbollah—Tehran now insists any truce in its own war with the U.S. and Israel must also cover Lebanon, where Israeli forces have pushed deeper than at any point in 25 years. U.S. President Donald Trump disputed the reports and said talks were continuing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress he’s hopeful about eventual nuclear negotiations.
• An outbreak in a famine. The World Health Organization and the European Union scaled up a joint response on Tuesday to the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, caused by the Bundibugyo strain—no approved vaccine, no treatment. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tied the spread to conflict and hunger, with nearly 10 million people short of food in the eastern provinces. Congo has confirmed 321 cases and 48 deaths, with more than 900 suspected; Uganda, 15.
• A football team in quarantine. Russia’s overnight barrage—656 drones and 73 missiles—killed at least 20 across Ukraine. … The messaging platform Telegram’s Pavel Durov, barred by a French court from last year’s Oslo Freedom Forum, made it to this one in person. … Jordan seized the passport of Qatari World Cup whistleblower Abdullah Ibhais, blocking his trip to the same forum. … Colombia's far-right Abelardo de la Espriella led the first round and faces the leftist Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff. … DR Congo’s World Cup team must clear a 21-day Ebola quarantine before the U.S. will admit it; Spain has canceled a warm-up.

Feature

Total ownership

What do Middle Eastern states want with European football clubs? Sarath K. Ganji on autocratic governments’ ambitious move into the global game.

The 2026 Spanish Supercopa final—between Barcelona and Real Madrid—didn’t take place in Spain. It took place at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, 30 kilometers north of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Every Supercopa final has been held in Saudi since 2020—with one exception, when the Covid-19 pandemic forced the tournament back to Seville in 2021—as every one will be until at least 2029.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates hosted the Asian Cup in 2019; Qatar did in 2024; Saudi Arabia will in 2027. That’s three Asian Cups in a row, in a corner of Asia that represents just over 7 percent of the continent’s total area—most of it desert—and 1 percent of its population.

Qatar held the World Cup in 2022; it’ll be Saudi in 2034.

The Gulf has poured money into football. Since 2008, its three wealthiest states have bought more than 20 clubs around the world—including three of the biggest in Europe: The United Arab Emirates owns Manchester City; Qatar, Paris Saint-Germain; and Saudi Arabia, Newcastle United.

We know this isn’t the first time ultra-wealthy interests have brought big money into the game—and transformed it. But these aren’t just ultra-wealthy interests. They’re ultra-wealthy governments. And they’re all dictatorships.

So what are they doing—and what do they want out of it?

Sarath K. Ganji is an analyst based in Washington, D.C., and the founding director of the Autocracy and Global Sports Initiative. Ganji notes that as the Gulf states have been buying their clubs, they’ve also been investing in sponsorship deals, media rights, and property developments—port infrastructure, too—all while the executives running these investments have taken positions inside football’s key governing bodies. And curious changes have followed—in what local politicians say, journalists write, even some artists end up doing …

From The Signal’s new limited-edition print extra, Shadow Play.

New music

‘Javelin’

Kevin Morby is an Americana singer-songwriter. He played in the Brooklyn band Woods before going solo more than a decade ago, his music now drawing on the ’80s heartland rock of John Mellencamp. He’s also the partner of Katie Crutchfield, who records as Waxahatchee.